If $SPCX closes at or above this level (30% over the $135 IPO price) on 5 of any 10 straight trading days, roughly another 10% of insider shares become sellable early.
How much $SPCX stock can actually trade, and when more arrives. Only a small slice of shares trades today — each lockup date releases more supply into the market, ending with full expiry on Dec 8, 2026. More supply meeting the same demand is the core bear case; strong earnings absorbing that supply is the bull case.